NOAA’s U.S. climate outlook for October 2026
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor update from September 24, nearly 80 percent of the contiguous United States was either “abnormally dry” or in some level of drought at the end of the first month of fall. That includes 58 percent of the hay-growing acreage, 37 percent of the acreage supporting dairy cows, 72 percent of U.S. cotton-growing area, and 80 percent of rice-growing acreage. (More statistics available from the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought website.)
This graph shows the cumulative percent area of the contiguous United States in different categories of drought. Darkest red shows the area in exceptional drought. Bright red is the total area in at least extreme drought (extreme plus exceptional), and so on through severe drought (dark orange) and moderate drought (light orange.) Although the total area in exceptional drought at the end of September 2026 was relatively small compared to conditions in 2010–2015 and 2020, the total area at least abnormally dry (yellow) was significant. Climate.us graph, based on data from the U.S. Drought Mitigation Center.
Fortunately, drought conditions are favored to improve or end this month across part of the Southwest, Southern Plains, Southeast, and the Northeast, according to NOAA’s monthly climate outlook for October 2026 from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC).
NOAA U.S. drought outlook for October 2026. Dark brown shows where drought is expected to persist or worsen. Light brown and green show where drought is expected to improve or end. Climate.us map, based on data from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC).
The broad swath of dark brown across the map above—places where drought is likely to persist or worsen—largely lines up with areas where October average temperatures are favored to be above average and precipitation is favored to be below average. (To be precise, the outlooks forecast the percent chance that temperature or precipitation will be in the top or bottom third of the monthly average temperature and precipitation values on record for Octobers from 1991-2020. For more details on the math behind these maps and how to interpret them, see our explainer.)
NOAA temperature outlook for October 2026. Any red/orange area means a warmer-than-average October is more likely than a cooler-than-average one. Darker colors mean higher chances, not bigger temperature extremes. White areas mean that a warm, cool, or near-average October is equally likely. Climate.us maps, based on data from the Climate Prediction Center.
According to the Climate Prediction Center forecast discussion,
The updated temperature outlook for October favors above normal monthly mean temperatures for nearly all areas west of the Continental Divide. East of the Divide, anomalous warmth is favored for the northern and central Plains, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and in the vicinity of the Gulf coast. The highest chances of above normal temperatures are indicated over California and parts of western Nevada and southern Oregon, as well as over most of the Florida Peninsula. White areas on the map do not mean temperatures are likely to be near average. They mean that those places have equal chances of above-, near- or below-normal October temperatures. There are no blue areas on the map, which means nowhere in the U.S. is favored to have a cooler than average October.
NOAA precipitation outlook for October 2026. Any blue-green area means a wetter-than-average October is more likely than a drier-than-average one. Any brown color means the opposite. Darker colors mean higher chances, not bigger precipitation extremes. White areas mean equal chances for a wet, dry, or near-average October. Climate.us maps, based on data from the Climate Prediction Center.
The highest chances for a drier-than-average October are in the Northwest quadrant of the contiguous United States, stretching across the northern states from the Great Lakes westward to Washington and south through parts of California. The highest chances for a wetter-than-average October are around the Gulf Coast from Texas to western Florida and in the Southeast. That wetness across the South is consistent with the influence of El Niño, whose peak influence usually comes in the winter. According to the CPC’s forecast discussion, “Despite this being early in the fall season, the southern storm track commonly observed with strong El Ninos is already beginning to take shape.”
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